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 Post subject: Treasure Probabilities
PostPosted: Thu, 29 Apr 2021 19:57:53 UTC 
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Joined: Wed, 19 Nov 2014 00:22:37 UTC
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Scenario: Ob and Nanko have to go through rooms A through E to get the treasure but each room has a hazard.

Room B. There is a trip wire across the entrance to Room B. The group has a 40% chance to trip the wire, and release a boulder, which will roll down from Room D. If the boulder trap is triggered, they have a 30% to escape into the side chamber at the top of Room B. Otherwise, they must run all the way back to Room A.

Q3: What is the combine probability that they trigger the boulder trap AND successfully escape to the side chamber? My answer is 3/25. Is this correct?

Room C. Sea Salt Dolores left behind more than treasure. The ghosts of her pirate events haunt to the halls of Room C. Ob and Nanko can avoid the ghosts 3 out of 5 times. If they are caught, they must fight the ghosts, and only have a 1 in 5 chance of success.

Q4: Draw a diagram that shows the possible outcomes in Room C. Use the tree diagram to find the probability that Ob and Nanko end up fighting and surviving the pirate ghosts. My answer is 4/625 because I have (1/25+1/25) x (1/25+1/25) = 4/625. Is this correct?

Thank you.


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